Sorry, I don’t have all the stats in front of me, though no doubt they’re out there lurking on the internet somewhere.
But let’s forgo the statistical evidence for now, and rely on your gut feeling in response to the question. Which game is the most important in a seven-game NHL playoff series?
Obviously, the fourth win by a team is crucial, for that is the drop-dead point of the entire affair.
Putting the obvious aside, at what point does a team get to that threshold, the earliest juncture in a series where they statistically hold the upper hand?
How crucial is it to win Game One? What percentage of NHL teams that take Game One of a seven-game series go on to win three more games?
My gut tells me that, while getting off to a good start is nice, Game Two is where it really begins to matter.
For instance, let’s say your team wins Game One AND Game Two. Many times in NHL history, a team has rebounded from a two-game deficit, but I’d venture that the majority of teams that get in that two-game hole to begin a series fail to climb all the way out of it. It only makes statistical sense.
If your team is down two games, heading into game three, then you have to win four of the next five games. Not impossible, but difficult, particularly since you’ve just lost two games in-a-row, so you’re not that hot to begin with.
Some will advance the theory that Game Three is the real litmus test, and they may be right. This theory holds more water when teams are tied at 1 game apiece, but then again, once could say Game Five is the key game, if both teams are tied at 2 games apiece.
Hey, what about Game Six??? Okay, suddenly every game in a series is crucial, but you know what, they are. Midway through the second period of Game One, it may look like a long series looms ahead, but the clock advances very quickly in the post-season, in some sort of warped Space Time Hockey Continuum.
Until convinced otherwise, I still postulate that Game Two is usually the turning point of a seven-game series. Let’s use a current example.
The eighth seeded Anaheim Ducks took Game One over the powerhouse San Jose Sharks. A road win in Game One automatically hands the home-ice advantage to the road team, erasing six months of hard work by the higher seed.
Suddenly, all the pressure is on the Sharks, who can’t afford to go to Southern California down by two games. If they win Game Two, the Sharks have avoided a sweep at home, have gained some momentum, and have set themselves up to reclaim so-called home ice advantage by only having to win one of the next two games in Anaheim.
If they lose Game Two, then they face the unenviable task of having to beat the resurgent Ducks four out of the next five games, and that scenario doesn’t look too promising for San Jose.
Of course, the Ducks prevailed 3-2 in Game Two, and now head home up two games. If the Sharks bounce back and take both games on the road, the worst Anaheim can be is tied heading back to San Jose, where they know they can win in the playoffs, because they’ve already won two games there.
True, if the Sharks take the next two games, they may regain momentum, and take control of the series, but that’s a pretty precarious branch to be walking out on, though now that’s all they’ve got to work with.
Game Three is also crucial, as the Blues found out, when they fell to the Canucks, who now have a stranglehold three-game lead in their series. And we all know, only two NHL teams have ever come all the way back from a three-game hole, and prevailed….though I think we’re long overdue for it to happen again.
Okay, so maybe I’ve convinced myself that both Game Two and Game Three are the contests that, upon closer inspection, reveal much of how the series-in-question will unfold. Someone please show me the math on this, because we can probably all list off teams that have come back from 2-0 and 3-1 game deficits, but it only stands to reason that most teams in that position never make it all the way back.
Math aside, there are other factors that have to be considered. The Washington Capitals also have lost the first two games of their series with the New York Rangers, and they were home-ice defeats, but one gets the sense that if they can win at MSG in Game Three, they’ll force themselves right back into this series. Same might be said for the Calgary Flames, and their battle with the Blackhawks, especially since the Flames are returning to the friendly confines of the Saddledome, or whatever they’re officially calling it these days.
Then again, does anyone really think the Montreal Canadiens will be right back in their series with the Boston Bruins if they manage to win Game Three on home ice?
Seven games in a playoff series seems to be the perfect number of games to separate the wheat from the chaff.
- Mick Kern
Tags: Anaheim Ducks, comebacks, Game Three, Game Two, NHL Home Ice, NHL Playoffs, San Jose Sharks, St. Louis Blues, The War Room, Vancouver Canucks